Web Materials: The Art & Science of Prognostication Lesson 5


Web Articles

Christakis, Nicholas A. “Prognostication and Bioethics.” Daedalus 128, no. 4 (1999): 197-214.

Gramling, Robert et al. “Latent Classes of Prognosis Conversations in Palliative Care: A Mixed-Methods Study.” Journal of Palliative Medicine 16.6 (2013): 653–660. PMC.

Kellett, John “Prognostication — The lost skill of medicine” European Journal of Internal Medicine , Volume 19 , Issue 3 , 155 – 164 (for purchase)

Maida, Vincent, and Cheon, Paul M. “Prognosis: The ‘missing Link’ within the CanMEDS Competency Framework.” BMC Medical Education 14 (2014): 93. PMC. Web. 25 Apr. 2018.

Maynard, D. W. (2017), “Delivering bad news in emergency care medicine.” Acute Med Surg, 4: 3-11. doi:10.1002/ams2.210

Raveendran, M.  “Prognostication – A Lost Skill in Medicine” Beyond Medicine

Renter, Elizabeth and Schroeder, Michael O. “How to Talk So Your Doctor Will Listen.” US News March 2, 2018

Shute, Debra. “A Physician’s Tips for Delivering Bad News” Media Health Leaders.” August 4, 2016

Tulsky, James. ”Death Foretold: Prophecy and prognosis in medical care” February 17, 2000
N Engl J Med 2000; 342:522



Although many geriatric prognostic indices have been published, they may be difficult for busy clinicians to remember and use. Our goal is to be a repository of published geriatric prognostic indices where clinicians can go to obtain evidence-based information on patients’ prognosis.

To locate prognostic indices, we conducted a systematic review of the literature, published in JAMA January 11, 2011. Users should refer to this systematic review for detailed information on the accuracy, generalizability, potential for bias, and usability of these indices.

These indices are designed for older adults who do not have a dominant terminal illness. For patients with a dominant terminal illness, such as advanced dementia, cancer, or heart failure, prognostic indices specifically designed for those purposes should be used.

The information on ePrognosis is intended as a rough guide to inform clinicians about possible mortality outcomes. It is not intended to be the only basis for making care decisions, nor is it intended to be a definitive means of prognostication. Clinicians should keep in mind that every patient is an individual, and that many factors beyond those used in these indices may influence a patient’s prognosis.

Cleveland Clinic Risk Calculator Library

Department of Quantitative Health Sciences risk calculator library.


Intended use of the PredictCancer.org:

The prediction models are to be used to supplement, not substitute for, clinical judgment. These models should only be used by physicians who are familiar with the complexity of treatment decisions in cancer treatment and should not be used directly by patients. If you are a patient and would like to obtain an individualized prediction for your specific situation, it is suggested that you ask your health care professional to obtain this prediction and go over the results with you.