Web Materials: The Art & Science of Prognostication Lesson 1


Web Articles

Christakis, NA. Complexities in prognostication in advanced cancer: ‘to help them live their lives the way they want to.’”  JAMA. 2003;290(1):98–104pmid:12837717

Christakis, NA, Iwashyna TJ. “Attitude and Self-reported Practice Regarding Prognostication in a National Sample of Internists.” Arch Intern Med. 1998;158(21):2389–2395. doi:10.1001/archinte.158.21.2389

Haller, Linda “What Patients Want To Know About Their Prognosis” March 30, 2017

Hancock , Clayton JM, Parker SM, Wal der S, Butow PN, Carrick S, Currow D, Ghersi D, Glare P, Hagerty R, Tattersall MH. Truth-telling in discussing prognosis in advanced life-limiting illnesses: a systematic review.” Palliat Med. 2007 Sep;21(6):507-17.

Mack, Jennifer W. et al. “End-of-Life Discussions among Patients with Advanced Cancer: A Cohort Study.” Annals of internal medicine 156.3 (2012): 204–210. PMC. Web. 16 Aug. 2017.

Mack JW, Joffe S. “Communicating about prognosis: ethical responsibilities of pediatricians and parents.” Pediatrics. 2014 Feb;133 Suppl 1:S24-30

Parkes, Colin Murray. “Bereavement in Adult Life.” BMJ : British Medical Journal316.7134 (1998): 856–859.


Life Expectancy Calculator Website


There are many different types of life expectancy or longevity calculators designed with different objectives in mind. While no calculator is 100% accurate, it is important to choose a tool that is appropriate for your objective.

John Hancock Life Expectancy Calculator

This site estimates how long you will live and asks you examine that number compared to your retirement savings.

GoTo Quiz: When Will I Die?

This test aims to answer the question, “When will I die?” Lifespans have been increasing for many years, thanks to medical advances, better nutrition and a host of other factors. The average man will die in his late 70s, while the average woman will likely die around age 80.

We at GoToQuiz have consulted a variety of sources, including government actuarial tables, to devise questions and a scoring formula to estimate when you will die. This test assumes you live in a developed nation (US, Canada, UK, etc) and do not presently have a life-threatening illness. Just answer each question honestly and we’ll compute your estimated life expectancy. If your exact answer isn’t an option, pick the closest one.

Fateful Day Online Quiz

A quiz meant to guess how much time you have left to live, based on lifestyle choices and statistical data.

ePrognosis Website

Although many geriatric prognostic indices have been published, they may be difficult for busy clinicians to remember and use. Our goal is to be a repository of published geriatric prognostic indices where clinicians can go to obtain evidence-based information on patients’ prognosis.

To locate prognostic indices, we conducted a systematic review of the literature, published in JAMA January 11, 2011. Users should refer to this systematic review for detailed information on the accuracy, generalizability, potential for bias, and usability of these indices.

These indices are designed for older adults who do not have a dominant terminal illness. For patients with a dominant terminal illness, such as advanced dementia, cancer, or heart failure, prognostic indices specifically designed for those purposes should be used.

The information on ePrognosis is intended as a rough guide to inform clinicians about possible mortality outcomes. It is not intended to be the only basis for making care decisions, nor is it intended to be a definitive means of prognostication. Clinicians should keep in mind that every patient is an individual, and that many factors beyond those used in these indices may influence a patient’s prognosis.